NecessityandfeasibilityofbuildingnaturalgasfuturesmarketsinChina
ShiJianxun
(LangfangBranchof ResearchInstituteof Petroleum Explorationand Development,PetroChina,Langfang,
Hebei065007,China)
NATUR.GASIND.VOLUME34,ISSUE9,pp.-,9/25/2014.(ISSN1000-0976;InChinese)
Abstract:Naturalgasistheonlyonealternativecleanenergysourcewhichcanreplacecoalandoilonalargescaleatpresent.Natural
gasindustryinChinahasabrightprospectinthenearfutureanditssteadyandhealthydevelopmentwillhighlydependuponareasonablegaspricings
stem.Inviewofthis,throughaninvestigationintotherichexperiencesfromthosedevelopedcountriesinnaturalgasindustryaswellasthecharacteristicsofgaspric
nginfuturesmarkets,thispaperconcludesthatitisnecessaryforChinato
builditsownnaturalgasfuturesmarketsforthefollowingreasons.(1)Gaspricesdiscoveredinfuturesmarketsaremostclosetothe
idealequilibriumprice.(2)Infuturesmarkets,gaspriceswillbepossiblypredictedinacontinuouslong-termperiod.(3)Onthe
contractexpirationdate(orthesettlementday),gaspricesinfuturesandinspotmarketswillcometoconvergence.Inaddition,itis
alsofeasibleforChinatoownanaturalgasfuturesmarketbecause(1)participatorsinanaturalgasfuturesmarkethavebeenmore
thanenoughandsuchamarketdemandisstillsoaringhigh;(2)naturalgaspipelinesandstoragereservesfacilitieshavebeenalmost
completed,providinggoodconditionsforphysicaldeliveryinafuturesmarket;(3)thosefuturesmarketsforotherproductsaredevelopingwellinpresentChinaandhavecollectedgoodmanagementexperiencesandaccumulatedricht
lentsresources;and(4)due
toitspredominantgeologicallocation,Chinawillbeexpectedtobecomeanimportantcenterfornaturalgaspricinganddeliveryin
EastAsia.Inconclusion,Chinaneedstobuilditsownnaturalgasfuturesmarketsassoonaspossible,therebytohelpexplorethe
futuregaspricesintheglobalmarket.
Keywords:China,naturalgas,futuresmarket,necessity,practicality,EastAsia,gasprice
