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中国建立天然气期货市场的必要性和可行性

来源:《天然气工业》 日期:2014-09-05 浏览量:
史建勋
 
中国石油勘探开发研究院廊坊分院
中国建立天然气期货市场的必要性和可行性
摘 要 天然气是近期内唯一可能大规模替代煤炭和石油的清洁能源。中国的天然气工业有着广阔的发展前景,而价格是影 
响其发展的核心因素。为此,通过研究天然气工业发达国家的经验以及期货市场定价的特点,认识到中国建立天然气期货市场的
必要性:①期货市场发现的价格最接近理想的均衡价格;②期货市场可以发现连续的远期价格;③在合约到期日(交割日)期货价格
与现货价格收敛趋同。基于中国天然气市场的现状及发展趋势,认为建立中国自己的天然气期货市场是可行的:①我国天然气现
货市场参与者已经达到一定数量,进行期货交易的需求潜力巨大;②我国天然气管输和储备系统基本完善,交割条件已经具备;③
国内期货市场快速发展,提供了管理经验和人才保障;④中国地理位置优越,有望成为东亚天然气定价和交割中心。因此中国应该
尽快建立天然气期货市场,发现天然气市场价格。
关键词 中国 天然气 期货市场 必要性 可行性 东亚 价格
NecessityandfeasibilityofbuildingnaturalgasfuturesmarketsinChina
ShiJianxun
(LangfangBranchof ResearchInstituteof Petroleum Explorationand Development,PetroChina,Langfang,
Hebei065007,China)
NATUR.GASIND.VOLUME34,ISSUE9,pp.-,9/25/2014.(ISSN1000-0976;InChinese)
Abstract:Naturalgasistheonlyonealternativecleanenergysourcewhichcanreplacecoalandoilonalargescaleatpresent.Natural
gasindustryinChinahasabrightprospectinthenearfutureanditssteadyandhealthydevelopmentwillhighlydependuponareasonablegaspricings
stem.Inviewofthis,throughaninvestigationintotherichexperiencesfromthosedevelopedcountriesinnaturalgasindustryaswellasthecharacteristicsofgaspric
nginfuturesmarkets,thispaperconcludesthatitisnecessaryforChinato
builditsownnaturalgasfuturesmarketsforthefollowingreasons.(1)Gaspricesdiscoveredinfuturesmarketsaremostclosetothe
idealequilibriumprice.(2)Infuturesmarkets,gaspriceswillbepossiblypredictedinacontinuouslong-termperiod.(3)Onthe
contractexpirationdate(orthesettlementday),gaspricesinfuturesandinspotmarketswillcometoconvergence.Inaddition,itis
alsofeasibleforChinatoownanaturalgasfuturesmarketbecause(1)participatorsinanaturalgasfuturesmarkethavebeenmore
thanenoughandsuchamarketdemandisstillsoaringhigh;(2)naturalgaspipelinesandstoragereservesfacilitieshavebeenalmost
completed,providinggoodconditionsforphysicaldeliveryinafuturesmarket;(3)thosefuturesmarketsforotherproductsaredevelopingwellinpresentChinaandhavecollectedgoodmanagementexperiencesandaccumulatedricht
lentsresources;and(4)due
toitspredominantgeologicallocation,Chinawillbeexpectedtobecomeanimportantcenterfornaturalgaspricinganddeliveryin
EastAsia.Inconclusion,Chinaneedstobuilditsownnaturalgasfuturesmarketsassoonaspossible,therebytohelpexplorethe
futuregaspricesintheglobalmarket.
Keywords:China,naturalgas,futuresmarket,necessity,practicality,EastAsia,gasprice
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